The untapped value of strategic foresight for charities

Why does strategic foresight matter for charities?

That’s such an important question, and it’s one I hear often in both nonprofit and corporate settings. Nonprofit organisations face a constant challenge, having to respond quickly to immediate crises while simultaneously planning for an uncertain future. The responsive mode of operation often makes it difficult to step back and think strategically about what might happen next. Yet, precisely because charities operate in areas critical to society, they’re especially exposed to a wide range of shifting external forces. Political changes, economic pressures, policy shifts, technological innovation, and environmental disruptions all influence their ability to deliver on their mission. Beyond these broad categories, nonprofits also face unique dynamics like evolving funding ecosystems, changing volunteer patterns, and demographic shifts, to name a few.

It’s important to recognise that strategic foresight isn't about predicting the future with certainty; it's about developing the ability to navigate uncertainty with confidence. For charities, whose missions often involve addressing complex social challenges, this capability isn't just valuable – it's essential.

That really highlights how complex the landscape is. So let’s talk about one of the practical tools in this space - what is scenario planning, and how can it help charities?

Absolutely. Scenario planning is a powerful strategic tool designed to help organisations navigate uncertainty. Unlike prediction-focused approaches, scenario planning doesn't aim to foresee exactly what will happen. Instead, it helps you explore plausible futures so you can ensure your plans are resilient even in the face of unexpected shifts in your operating environment.

When we try to think beyond the next quarter or year, the future quickly becomes unclear. Trends interconnect in complex ways, making it difficult to anticipate what might happen. Scenario planning offers a structured approach to this complexity, allowing organisations to make sure their strategies can withstand different future conditions.

A classic example comes from Shell in the 1970s. Their rigorous scenario planning helped them navigate the 1973 oil crisis more successfully than competitors. They didn't precisely predict the crisis, but they had prepared for a world that resembled the conditions of what actually unfolded. The specific triggering events differed from their scenarios, but their preparation for that type of future meant they could respond effectively.

The most common approach involves developing four scenarios based on the intersection of two critical uncertainties – major trends that could significantly impact your organisation but whose direction of travel remains unclear. By mapping these intersections, you can develop rich stories about potential futures and test your current strategies against them.

I imagine charities can apply similar methods to their own challenges. Could you walk us through a practical example of how this might look in the nonprofit context?

100% - the beauty of these methods is how applicable they are across different sectors and industries. Let's consider a hypothetical environmental charity that protects forests in coastal regions. This organisation has a centralised operations model with small branches working with local communities. Looking ahead, they identify two major uncertainties. These are driving forces that can have a dramatic impact on their work:

• Funding stability: Will they continue to receive government support, or might that funding disappear?
• Climate impact pace: Will environmental changes happen gradually, or will there be rapid, disastrous changes?

By creating scenarios around these uncertainties, the organisation might discover several vulnerabilities, for example:

• Their centralized decision-making could completely break down in Crisis Response. Local offices couldn't make all decisions if communities were cut off by storms and communications failed.
• Traditional funding sources might disappear if government priorities shift.
• Their staff expertise centres on gradual conservation, not emergency response.
• Basic technology limits their ability to monitor remote areas if physical access becomes restricted.

With these insights, they can make proactive changes:

• Decentralise their decision-making to give local teams more autonomy, and provide emergency communication equipment.
• Diversify funding through creative solutions like sustainable product enterprises or ecotourism partnerships.
• Invest in staff training for disaster response.
• Upgrade their technology with drones or satellite imagery partnerships.

Their scenario planning wouldn’t have predicted exactly what had happened, but it would have prepared them with the capabilities, structure, and mindset to adapt quickly when the unexpected occurred. The power of this approach isn't just about surviving a crisis – it's about transforming the organisation to be a more resilient, adaptive system, that is capable of fulfilling its mission under dramatically different circumstances.

That’s a helpful demonstration of how strategic foresight can shift an organisation’s entire posture from reactive to prepared. But I imagine there are common hurdles. What blind spots do you see organisations run into when thinking about the future?

Yes, there are definitely recurring blind spots I encounter across sectors. Organisations typically struggle with three major problems when thinking about the future:

1. Urgency bias: When constantly responding to urgent matters, it's difficult to prioritise important long-term thinking. The irony is that investing in foresight often reduces the number of crises that feel truly urgent. It’s not that disruptions won’t happen—but for an organization that’s prepared, they won’t be experienced as crises. Prepared organizations can withstand shocks that would otherwise overwhelm others.
2. Present bias: We often assume the future will mirror the present, making it difficult to envision dramatic change, even though the past decade has shown us just how rapidly and profoundly the world can shift. Uncertainty is inherently uncomfortable, so we instinctively anchor ourselves to the familiar as a way of seeking stability.
3. Control illusion: We tend to focus only on what we can directly influence, overlooking the broader external forces beyond our control that shape our environment. This makes our plans more brittle than they should be. While you can't control economic trends or technological shifts, incorporating these forces into your planning makes your strategy more resilient.
   
   

So for charities looking to take a first step, where should they begin? Are there practical ways to get started even with limited resources?

Definitely. Not every charity has the resources to establish a dedicated foresight team, but the good news is that building foresight into your organisation doesn’t require a big budget. There are several low-cost, high-impact practices that any charity can adopt:

• Incorporate long-term thinking into annual planning: When doing your yearly planning, include a session dedicated to thinking 3-5 years ahead. Spend a few hours with your team identifying driving forces impacting your work. Map these forces, prioritise the most critical ones, and develop preliminary scenarios.
  
  
• Conduct regular horizon scanning: Implement a simple horizon scanning routine on a monthly or quarterly basis. Look at political, economic, legal, environmental, social, and technological trends affecting your work and ask: "What's happening now, and where do we see it heading?"
  
  
• Form a cross-functional futures team: If you can't create a dedicated team, identify interested staff members who can form a cross-functional group. Have them meet for an hour monthly to assess emerging trends and deliver insights to leadership. Remember that diversity is the single most important criteria when thinking about the future. It ensures a comprehensive perspective and guards against blind spots.
  
  
• Review and extend your planning horizon: There are a few ways to do this. Try keeping a visible trend wall in your office, where team members can regularly note developments related to key issues. This keeps the longer-term mindset present. When you check in on quarterly or yearly results, review your identified trends and scenarios. Even 30 minutes assessing signals can give you an idea about whether you should start implementing some changes to your operations. Make sure to note new factors as they emerge, and as time passes gradually lengthen your outlook to maintain a consistent future view
  
  
• Consider external facilitation: If resources allow, bring in experts to facilitate scenario planning workshops. This external perspective can help overcome organisational blind spots and introduce structured methodologies.
  
  

As we wrap up, any final thoughts for charity leaders navigating today’s uncertainty?

I’d just reiterate that strategic foresight isn’t a one-time exercise but a continuous process. By building this capability, charities can move from reactive firefighting to proactive preparation. While the future remains uncertain, organisations with robust foresight capabilities can adapt more quickly and continue fulfilling their missions even as the world changes around them.